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On the Meaninglessness of Draft Grades
By Brinson | April 30, 2008
I have all intention of combing through the tube-series to find a collection of draft grades and then posting it here, but for now, I want to touch on Mel Kiper’s comments with a slew of sports reporters from the other day, courtesy of ITP.
ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. says he would have given the Carolina Panthers an “A” grade for their picks last weekend if they hadn’t given up a 2009 first round pick to acquire Pittsburgh offensive tackle Jeff Otah with the 19th selection this year. So he gave them a “B” instead.
Speaking Monday on a conference call with reporters from around the country, Kiper said the Panthers’ talent takeaway was comparable to that of the Kansas City Chiefs, whose draft class has been widely hailed as the best in the league.
See, to me, that’s meaningless. Otah cost us our second round pick this year and first rounder this year, yes, but he was an additional first round pick. In other words, we obtained an additional top 20 pick. Yes, I know, it’s relatively obvious. Which is why I don’t understand Kiper’s reaction and subsequent docking of our draft grade.
We can worry about next year’s draft, well, next year. And if this team performs as it should — which at minimal is making the playoffs — then we’ll be talking about that pick as an absolute steal, because it shouldn’t be any higher than 22 or 23. Also, it can’t be underestimated how freaking deep this draft was in terms of running back and offensive line depth. The teams at the top didn’t need running backs, so Stewart slipped. And there wasn’t a perceived value of linemen like Otah and Clady to make them worth taking in the top 10, so they fell. And we pounced.
I understand the need to evaluate and place a draft grade based on what the entire haul is and to incorporate that haul in what is given away by a team — if the Pats traded Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Laurence Maroney but ended up with four first round picks, it wouldn’t be fair to say they had the “best draft”. But in a scenario like this, where Fox and Hurney were willing to take a calculated gamble on the value of a first round pick next year with a road grader like Otah, well, to me it seems absolutely ludicrous to dock us arbitrarily assigned letter grading for our draft.
Of course, draft grades a few hours after the whole shakedown happens are meaningless anyway, so all I’m really doing is affecting my blood pressure at this point. I just felt like it was worth pointing out. It’s also probably worth noting that Kiper said we performed better than anyone else in Day 2 and that he pointed out that Bill Cowher was “lurking out there”. That hadn’t even crossed my mind, but it’s a pretty good point.